Amphibian declines: future directions

The amphibian decline problem is complex, and there is no easy solution. I highlight four major areas of future research that should increase our ability to detect declines, elucidate their underlying mechanisms, and advance our capacity to manage and conserve amphibian populations. First, a statistically sensitive monitoring approach is necessary to determine the distribution and abundance of amphibian populations, to assess whether they are declining, and to quantify the extent of declines. Most amphibian populations characteristically fluctuate, detection probabilities may be low for many species and populations tend to decline in numbers between years more often than they increase. These traits make establishing monitoring programmes difficult and distinguishing declines from natural fluctuations challenging. It is thus necessary to determine the best monitoring techniques based on their statistical power and to use appropriate statistical methods for detecting population trends. Secondly, although amphibian population studies occur most commonly at single or few breeding sites, research should occur often at the landscape level, and conservation efforts should focus on suitable habitat (whether or not it is occupied) and dispersal capabilities of species. Metapopulation dynamics are probably important for many species, but we must be cautious how we define metapopulations. That is, the term ‘metapopulation’ is currently used to define a wide range of demographic situations in amphibian populations, each with different management implications. Thirdly, recent advances in molecular genetic techniques make it possible to infer demographic events such as effects of recent fragmentation, bottlenecks or hybridization. Molecular techniques can be used in conjunction with census surveys to bolster knowledge about demographic processes such as declines. Alternatively, in the absence of long-term census data, molecular data can be used to infer population trends. New genomic approaches may make estimating adaptive genetic variation more feasible. Fourthly, multi-factorial studies are needed to disentangle the complexity of the several putative causes that probably interact to cause amphibian declines. Recent studies demonstrate the value of a multi-factorial approach, and more work is needed to elucidate the synergistic effects of multiple environmental factors affecting amphibian populations simultaneously worldwide.